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Aurrerá Vitoria vs Zarautz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Zarautz
Zarautz
3/28/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Estadio Olaranbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aurrerá Vitoria46%
×Draw24%
Zarautz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.69
Zarautz
1.34

Aurrerá Vitoria creates 26% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.03
Zarautz
1.24

allows per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.44
Zarautz
2.35

finishing

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par
Zarautz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Vitoria ↓

Zarautz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aurrerá Vitoria or draw
69%
Aurrerá Vitoria or Zarautz
76%
Draw or Zarautz
54%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
24%
Zarautz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
82%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
50%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
24%
Zarautz 1+ goals
74%
Zarautz 2+ goals
39%
Zarautz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
60%
Zarautz (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Vitoria at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Zarautz away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 1.03 + Zarautz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.69

Zarautz attack 1.24 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
46%
level
24%
Zarautz scores more
31%

Aurrerá Vitoria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aurrerá Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aurrerá Vitoria 1–3 Zarautz

Zarautz beat Aurrerá Vitoria 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olaranbe in Vitoria-Gasteiz.