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Aurrerá Vitoria vs Touring — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Touring
Touring
11/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Estadio Olaranbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aurrerá Vitoria35%
×Draw27%
Touring38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.25
Touring
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.03
Touring
1.21

allows per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.44
Touring
1.48

finishing

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par
Touring+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Vitoria ↓

Touring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aurrerá Vitoria or draw
62%
Aurrerá Vitoria or Touring
73%
Draw or Touring
65%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
15%
Touring wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
71%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
36%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
13%
Touring 1+ goals
73%
Touring 2+ goals
38%
Touring 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
48%
Touring (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Vitoria at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Touring away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 1.03 + Touring defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Touring attack 1.21 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
35%
level
27%
Touring scores more
38%

Touring at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Touring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aurrerá Vitoria 1–1 Touring

Aurrerá Vitoria and Touring drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olaranbe in Vitoria-Gasteiz.