Aurrerá Vitoria 0–3 Real Sociedad III

Aurrerá Vitoria

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Real Sociedad III

9/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Estadio Olaranbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aurrerá Vitoria31%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad III44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aurrerá VitoriaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.55

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.27

Real Sociedad III

1.55

Real Sociedad III creates 22% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 44 away

1.03

creates per match

1.66

1.44

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.03

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.44

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Vitoria ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aurrerá Vitoria or draw

56%

Aurrerá Vitoria or Real Sociedad III

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

69%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+

13%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals

72%

Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals

36%

Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals

14%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

79%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

46%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)

42%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Vitoria at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 1.03 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more

31%

level

25%

Real Sociedad III scores more

44%

Real Sociedad III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aurrerá Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III

Real Sociedad III beat Aurrerá Vitoria 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olaranbe in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Aurrerá Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Aurrerá Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III