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Aurrerá Vitoria vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
11/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Estadio Olaranbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aurrerá Vitoria40%
×Draw27%
Aurrerá Ondarroa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.34
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.18

Aurrerá Vitoria creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.03
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.44
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Vitoria ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aurrerá Vitoria or draw
67%
Aurrerá Vitoria or Aurrerá Ondarroa
73%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
60%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
19%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
74%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
39%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
15%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
69%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
33%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
55%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Vitoria at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 1.03 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
40%
level
27%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
33%

Aurrerá Vitoria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aurrerá Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aurrerá Vitoria 0 – 3 Aurrerá Ondarroa

Aurrerá Ondarroa beat Aurrerá Vitoria 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olaranbe in Vitoria-Gasteiz.