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Aurrerá Ondarroa vs Santutxu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santutxu
Santutxu
3/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa42%
×Draw28%
Santutxu30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.31
Santutxu
1.07

Aurrerá Ondarroa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 46 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.03
Santutxu
0.98

allows per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.17
Santutxu
1.59

finishing

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par
Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Ondarroa ↓

Santutxu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aurrerá Ondarroa or draw
70%
Aurrerá Ondarroa or Santutxu
72%
Draw or Santutxu
58%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
19%
Santutxu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
73%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
38%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
14%
Santutxu 1+ goals
66%
Santutxu 2+ goals
29%
Santutxu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
58%
Santutxu (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Ondarroa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 66 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 1.03 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Santutxu attack 0.98 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
42%
level
28%
Santutxu scores more
30%

Aurrerá Ondarroa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aurrerá Ondarroa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aurrerá Ondarroa 4–1 Santutxu

Aurrerá Ondarroa beat Santutxu 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe in Ondarroa.