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Aurrerá Ondarroa vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
9/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa36%
×Draw29%
San Ignacio35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.10
San Ignacio
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 112 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.03
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.17
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Ondarroa ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aurrerá Ondarroa or draw
65%
Aurrerá Ondarroa or San Ignacio
71%
Draw or San Ignacio
64%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
14%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
67%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
30%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
10%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
66%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
29%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
51%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Ondarroa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 66 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 1.03 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
36%
level
29%
San Ignacio scores more
35%

Aurrerá Ondarroa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Aurrerá Ondarroa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aurrerá Ondarroa 1–0 San Ignacio

Aurrerá Ondarroa beat San Ignacio 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe in Ondarroa.