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Aurrerá Ondarroa vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
10/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa39%
×Draw28%
Pasaia KE33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.21
Pasaia KE
1.08

Aurrerá Ondarroa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 111 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.03
Pasaia KE
1.00

allows per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.17
Pasaia KE
1.38

finishing

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par
Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Ondarroa ↓

Pasaia KE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aurrerá Ondarroa or draw
67%
Aurrerá Ondarroa or Pasaia KE
72%
Draw or Pasaia KE
61%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
17%
Pasaia KE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
70%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
34%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
12%
Pasaia KE 1+ goals
66%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
29%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
54%
Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Ondarroa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 66 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 1.03 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
39%
level
28%
Pasaia KE scores more
33%

Aurrerá Ondarroa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aurrerá Ondarroa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Aurrerá Ondarroa 0–1 Pasaia KE

Pasaia KE beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe in Ondarroa.