Aurrerá Ondarroa 1–0 Leioa: Result & Stats

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leioa

4/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa33%

×Draw28%

Leioa38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aurrerá OndarroaExpected goals in this matchLeioa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.19

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.09

Leioa

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 87 away

1.03

creates per match

1.20

1.17

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.03

Leioa

1.20

allows per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.17

Leioa

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Ondarroa ↓

Leioa →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Aurrerá Ondarroa or draw

62%

Aurrerá Ondarroa or Leioa

72%

Draw or Leioa

67%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

13%

Leioa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

66%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

30%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

10%

Leioa 1+ goals

70%

Leioa 2+ goals

33%

Leioa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

47%

Leioa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Ondarroa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 66 matches

Leioa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 1.03 + Leioa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Leioa attack 1.20 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

33%

level

28%

Leioa scores more

38%

Leioa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff