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Aurora vs San José — Primera División 2019

Aurora
Aurora
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San José
San José
7/10/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 8Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Aurora57%
×Draw22%
San José21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurora
2.00
San José
1.13

Aurora creates 77% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 54 away

creates per match

Aurora
1.60
San José
1.06

allows per match

Aurora
1.20
San José
2.39

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par
San José+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

San José →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aurora or draw
79%
Aurora or San José
78%
Draw or San José
43%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+
34%
San José wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals
86%
Aurora 2+ goals
59%
Aurora 3+ goals
32%
San José 1+ goals
68%
San José 2+ goals
31%
San José 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)
73%
San José (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

San José away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.60 + San José defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.00

San José attack 1.06 + Aurora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aurora scores more
57%
level
22%
San José scores more
21%

Aurora at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aurora vs San José

Aurora beat San José 3-0 in Primera División on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.