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Aurora vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Aurora
Aurora
Preview
00:30
Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
7/19/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9
Big match
64%
Aurora
model favours
64%19%17%

Aurora score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Aurora64%
×Draw19%
Oriente Petrolero17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurora
2.30
Oriente Petrolero
1.09

Aurora creates 111% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

Aurora
2.00
Oriente Petrolero
0.96

allows per match

Aurora
1.23
Oriente Petrolero
2.60

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par
Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Oriente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Aurora or draw
83%
Aurora or Oriente Petrolero
81%
Draw or Oriente Petrolero
36%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+
41%
Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals
90%
Aurora 2+ goals
67%
Aurora 3+ goals
40%
Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
66%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
30%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)
79%
Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 2.00 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Oriente Petrolero attack 0.96 + Aurora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Aurora scores more
64%
level
19%
Oriente Petrolero scores more
17%

Aurora at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oriente Petrolero outscore their xG (1.5 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Aurora
Defensively solid
Oriente Petrolero
Balanced
46%Possession50%
77%Pass accuracy76%
11.7Shots11.1
1.44xGBiggest gap0.90
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AuroraOriente Petrolero

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Aurora
0
Draws
3
Oriente Petrolero
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 40%
0–35–10–53–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Aurora
LWWDW
Petrolero
LLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aurora face Oriente Petrolero (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Aurora hosting Oriente Petrolero. Match starts July 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.