Aurora 5–0 Libertad: Result & Stats

Aurora

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Libertad

6/2/2023

Primera División · Round 16Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aurora64%

×Draw19%

Libertad16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuroraExpected goals in this matchLibertad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.01

Aurora

2.21

Libertad

1.01

Aurora creates 119% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 18 away

1.60

creates per match

0.83

1.20

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Aurora

1.60

Libertad

0.83

allows per match

Aurora

1.20

Libertad

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par

Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Libertad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Aurora or draw

84%

Aurora or Libertad

81%

Draw or Libertad

36%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+

41%

Libertad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals

89%

Aurora 2+ goals

65%

Aurora 3+ goals

38%

Libertad 1+ goals

64%

Libertad 2+ goals

27%

Libertad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)

80%

Libertad (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.60 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.21

Libertad attack 0.83 + Aurora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Aurora scores more

64%

level

19%

Libertad scores more

16%

Aurora at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff