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Aurora vs Blooming — Primera División 2026

Aurora
Aurora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blooming
Blooming
8/8/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Aurora57%
×Draw22%
Blooming21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurora
1.98
Blooming
1.13

Aurora creates 75% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 130 away

creates per match

Aurora
1.60
Blooming
1.05

allows per match

Aurora
1.20
Blooming
2.35

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par
Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Blooming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aurora or draw
79%
Aurora or Blooming
78%
Draw or Blooming
43%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+
34%
Blooming wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals
86%
Aurora 2+ goals
59%
Aurora 3+ goals
31%
Blooming 1+ goals
68%
Blooming 2+ goals
31%
Blooming 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)
73%
Blooming (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

Blooming away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.35 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.60 + Blooming defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.98

Blooming attack 1.05 + Aurora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aurora scores more
57%
level
22%
Blooming scores more
21%

Aurora at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Aurora 1–0 Blooming

Aurora beat Blooming 1-0 in Primera División on August 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.