Augsburg U19 0–1 Saarbrücken U19: Result & Stats

Augsburg U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

A. Lazzano 49'

10/2/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6Paul-Renz-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Augsburg U1959%

×Draw19%

Saarbrücken U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.56

Augsburg U19

2.57

Saarbrücken U19

1.56

Augsburg U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

2.16

creates per match

1.19

1.93

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Augsburg U19

2.16

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Augsburg U19

1.93

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw

77%

Augsburg U19 or Saarbrücken U19

81%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

41%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

38%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

92%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

72%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

47%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

79%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

46%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.16 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.57

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

23%

Augsburg U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

N. Rasoulinia← D. Katić

49'

A. Lazzano

57'

T. Wachall← A. Lazzano

61'

A. Japaur← H. Rathgeber

73'

Y. Flausse← J. Magar

76'

F. Geißler← S. Maas

82'

H. Yılmaz← N. Mouly

Augsburg

Saarbrücken

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Frankenberger

37'▲N. Rasoulinia←▼D. Katić

61'▲A. Japaur←▼H. Rathgeber

82'▲H. Yılmaz←▼N. Mouly

Augsburg U19 substitutes

RasouliniaJapaurYılmazKenjarKristGrünwaldPerovic

Manager: E. Melunovic

57'▲T. Wachall←▼A. Lazzano

73'▲Y. Flausse←▼J. Magar

76'▲F. Geißler←▼S. Maas

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

WachallFlausseGeißlerGauWeisKonradBöffel

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Saarbrücken U19

Saarbrücken U19 beat Augsburg U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 2, 2021.

Goals: A. Lazzano (49').

The match was played at Paul-Renz-Sportanlage in Augsburg.

Augsburg U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Saarbrücken U19