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Augsburg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Augsburg U19
Augsburg U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
12/4/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11Paul-Renz-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Augsburg U1931%
×Draw21%
Mainz 05 U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg U19
1.71
Mainz 05 U19
2.13

Mainz 05 U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 70 away

creates per match

Augsburg U19
2.19
Mainz 05 U19
2.33

allows per match

Augsburg U19
1.94
Mainz 05 U19
1.23

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par
Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw
52%
Augsburg U19 or Mainz 05 U19
79%
Draw or Mainz 05 U19
69%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+
15%
Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals
82%
Augsburg U19 2+ goals
51%
Augsburg U19 3+ goals
24%
Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
88%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
63%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.94 · 72 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.19 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.33 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more
31%
level
21%
Mainz 05 U19 scores more
48%

Mainz 05 U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Augsburg U19 1–1 Mainz 05 U19

Augsburg U19 and Mainz 05 U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Paul-Renz-Sportanlage in Augsburg.