Augsburg U19 3–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Augsburg U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kickers Offenbach U19

M. Müller 82'

F. Ivanović 45'

D. Schmidt 35'

2/23/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 18Paul-Renz-Sportanlage Kunstrasenplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Augsburg U1962%

×Draw18%

Kickers Offenbach U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.61

1.46

Augsburg U19

2.61

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.46

Augsburg U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 47 away

2.16

creates per match

0.98

1.93

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Augsburg U19

2.16

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Augsburg U19

1.93

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw

80%

Augsburg U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

82%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

38%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

41%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

93%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

73%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

47%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

77%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

43%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.16 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.61

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more

62%

level

18%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

20%

Augsburg U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

D. Schmidt

45'

F. Ivanović

46'

D. Dejanovic← L. Dahl

46'

V. Giesel← M. Bell

61'

D. Berisha← N. Kohlbacher

69'

M. Sentürk← D. Herth

76'

N. Meyer← T. Thang

79'

M. Müller← F. Ivanović

82'

M. Müller

87'

T. Heckmeier← J. Kudala

90'

D. Wörns← D. Cevis

Augsburg

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ivanović

▼

Cevis

▼

Kohlbache

Manager: M. Lanzinger

61'▲D. Berisha←▼N. Kohlbacher

79'▲M. Müller←▼F. Ivanović

87'▲T. Heckmeier←▼J. Kudala

90'▲D. Wörns←▼D. Cevis

Augsburg U19 substitutes

BerishaMüllerHeckmeierWörnsGruberFundelMüller

Manager: R. Trabert

46'▲D. Dejanovic←▼L. Dahl

46'▲V. Giesel←▼M. Bell

69'▲M. Sentürk←▼D. Herth

76'▲N. Meyer←▼T. Thang

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

DejanovicGieselSentürkMeyerEmbayeReinhardPuth