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Augsburg U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Augsburg U19
Augsburg U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Karlsruher SC U19
Karlsruher SC U19
4/13/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 22Paul-Renz-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Augsburg U1942%
×Draw22%
Karlsruher SC U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg U19
1.94
Karlsruher SC U19
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 71 away

creates per match

Augsburg U19
2.19
Karlsruher SC U19
1.70

allows per match

Augsburg U19
1.94
Karlsruher SC U19
1.70

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par
Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw
63%
Augsburg U19 or Karlsruher SC U19
78%
Draw or Karlsruher SC U19
58%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+
23%
Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals
86%
Augsburg U19 2+ goals
58%
Augsburg U19 3+ goals
30%
Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals
84%
Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals
54%
Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.94 · 72 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.70 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.19 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.94

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.70 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more
42%
level
22%
Karlsruher SC U19 scores more
37%

Augsburg U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19

Karlsruher SC U19 beat Augsburg U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Paul-Renz-Sportanlage in Augsburg.