Augsburg U19 1–2 Ingolstadt U19: Result & Stats

Augsburg U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ingolstadt U19

M. Müller 23'

J. Butler 52'

R. Domislic 25'

8/25/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Augsburg U1937%

×Draw21%

Ingolstadt U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg U19Expected goals in this matchIngolstadt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.06

Augsburg U19

1.92

Ingolstadt U19

2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 71 away

2.15

creates per match

2.14

1.97

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Augsburg U19

2.15

Ingolstadt U19

2.14

allows per match

Augsburg U19

1.97

Ingolstadt U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw

58%

Augsburg U19 or Ingolstadt U19

79%

Draw or Ingolstadt U19

63%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

20%

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

85%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

57%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

30%

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

87%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

61%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.97 · 71 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.69 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.15 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.14 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

42%

Ingolstadt U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

25'

52'

57'

64'

L. Zeqiri← T. Heckmeier

69'

D. Wörns← A. Emini

69'

A. Bangura← J. Hawkins

69'

J. Brunner← S. Kampmann

79'

T. Schwarzmeier← J. Butler

90+1'

K. Arnold← D. Cevis

90+1'

N. Mahler← M. Röhl

Augsburg

Ingolstadt

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Müller

Manager: M. Lanzinger

57'▲M. Grimm←▼M. Müller

64'▲L. Zeqiri←▼T. Heckmeier

69'▲D. Wörns←▼A. Emini

90+1'▲K. Arnold←▼D. Cevis

Augsburg U19 substitutes

GrimmZeqiriWörnsArnoldFundelMüllerOberleitner

Manager: R. Pätzold

69'▲A. Bangura←▼J. Hawkins

69'▲J. Brunner←▼S. Kampmann

79'▲T. Schwarzmeier←▼J. Butler

90+1'▲N. Mahler←▼M. Röhl

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

BanguraBrunnerSchwarzmeierMahlerPardiBrandlŞahin