Augsburg U19 8–1 Hessen Kassel U19: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg U19Expected goals in this matchHessen Kassel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.63

1.21

Augsburg U19

3.63

Hessen Kassel U19

1.21

Augsburg U19 creates 200% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 10 away

2.16

creates per match

0.50

1.93

allows per match

5.10

creates per match

Augsburg U19

2.16

Hessen Kassel U19

0.50

allows per match

Augsburg U19

1.93

Hessen Kassel U19

5.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Hessen Kassel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw

91%

Augsburg U19 or Hessen Kassel U19

89%

Draw or Hessen Kassel U19

20%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

63%

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

97%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

87%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

68%

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

70%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

34%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

90%

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

Hessen Kassel U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.16 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 5.10 → ÷2 → 3.63

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.50 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more

80%

level

11%

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

9%

Augsburg U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

17'

21'

37'

43'

46'

H. Eckhardt← L. Garcia

53'

T. Tahiri

57'

M. Bauer← D. Katić

57'

N. Mouly← P. Schemat

57'

N. Simić← H. Rathgeber

63'

N. Rasoulinia

66'

M. Porada← S. Yigitoglu

67'

L. Krasniqi← F. Ivanović

69'

T. Trittel← M. Agyekum

73'

Dion Berisha

76'

J. Gremler← T. Tahiri

82'

N. Simić

Augsburg

Hessen

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Schemat

⚽

Japaur

Manager: A. Frankenberger

57'▲M. Bauer←▼D. Katić

57'▲N. Mouly←▼P. Schemat

57'▲N. Simić←▼H. Rathgeber

67'▲L. Krasniqi←▼F. Ivanović

Augsburg U19 substitutes

BauerMoulySimićKrasniqiSchwarzensteinerSanderPerovic

Manager: A. Noja

46'▲H. Eckhardt←▼L. Garcia

66'▲M. Porada←▼S. Yigitoglu

69'▲T. Trittel←▼M. Agyekum

76'▲J. Gremler←▼T. Tahiri

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

EckhardtPoradaTrittelGremlerFarcasMayerFerl

U19 Bundesliga: Augsburg U19 8–1 Hessen Kassel U19

Augsburg U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 8-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 21, 2021.

Goals: A. Zehnter (2'), P. Schemat (17'), A. Japaur (21'), Dion Berisha (37', 73'), F. Ivanović (43'), T. Tahiri (53'), N. Rasoulinia (63'), N. Simić (82').

The match was played at Paul-Renz-Sportanlage in Augsburg.

Augsburg U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Augsburg U19 8–1 Hessen Kassel U19