Augsburg U19 5–2 Greuther Fürth U19: Result & Stats

Augsburg U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Greuther Fürth U19

D. Berisha 70', 63', 1'

A. Koudelka 45+1' (pen)

L. Zeqiri 39'

J. Sauer 85'

Y. Raab 58'

10/17/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Paul-Renz-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Augsburg U1949%

×Draw20%

Greuther Fürth U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg U19Expected goals in this matchGreuther Fürth U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.73

Augsburg U19

2.24

Greuther Fürth U19

1.73

Augsburg U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 67 away

2.16

creates per match

1.54

1.93

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Augsburg U19

2.16

Greuther Fürth U19

1.54

allows per match

Augsburg U19

1.93

Greuther Fürth U19

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw

70%

Augsburg U19 or Greuther Fürth U19

80%

Draw or Greuther Fürth U19

51%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

29%

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

65%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

38%

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

82%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

52%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.16 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.24

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more

49%

level

20%

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

30%

Augsburg U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

D. Berisha

39'

L. Zeqiri

45+1'

A. KoudelkaPenalty

54'

J. Sauer← M. Hirschmann

58'

Y. Raab

63'

P. Schemat← L. Zeqiri

63'

D. Berisha

67'

D. Salifou← H. Rathgeber

70'

D. Berisha

75'

J. Hampl← A. Krasniqi

75'

79'

85'

87'

Augsburg

Greuther

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

Manager: A. Frankenberger

63'▲P. Schemat←▼L. Zeqiri

67'▲D. Salifou←▼H. Rathgeber

79'▲X. Kroll←▼F. Wessig

Augsburg U19 substitutes

SchematSalifouKrollDedićMaloneBettrichKohlbacher

Manager: M. Ried

54'▲J. Sauer←▼M. Hirschmann

75'▲J. Hampl←▼A. Krasniqi

75'▲R. Lein←▼L. Kuschka

87'▲L. Mrozek←▼D. Upstas

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

SauerHamplLeinMrozekOrtiusMagdušauskasRautinger

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19

Augsburg U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 17, 2020.

Goals: D. Berisha (1', 63', 70'), L. Zeqiri (39'), A. Koudelka (45+1' pen), Y. Raab (58'), J. Sauer (85').

The match was played at Paul-Renz-Sportanlage in Augsburg.

Augsburg U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19