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Augsburg II vs Schalke 04 II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Augsburg II
Augsburg II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Schalke 04 II
Schalke 04 II
1/11/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Paul-Renz-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Augsburg II55%
×Draw20%
Schalke 04 II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg II
2.37
Schalke 04 II
1.55

Augsburg II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Augsburg II
2.40
Schalke 04 II
1.00

allows per match

Augsburg II
2.10
Schalke 04 II
2.33

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par
Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

Schalke 04 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw
75%
Augsburg II or Schalke 04 II
80%
Draw or Schalke 04 II
45%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+
35%
Schalke 04 II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals
91%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
68%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
42%
Schalke 04 II 1+ goals
79%
Schalke 04 II 2+ goals
46%
Schalke 04 II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)
69%
Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Schalke 04 II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 2.40 + Schalke 04 II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Schalke 04 II attack 1.00 + Augsburg II defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Augsburg II scores more
55%
level
20%
Schalke 04 II scores more
25%

Augsburg II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Augsburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Augsburg II 1–1 Schalke 04 II

Augsburg II and Schalke 04 II drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2024.

The match was played at Paul-Renz-Sportanlage in Augsburg.