Augsburg II 3–1 Schalding-Heining: Result & Stats

Augsburg II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Schalding-Heining

7/27/2021

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 3Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Augsburg II61%

×Draw20%

Schalding-Heining19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg IIExpected goals in this matchSchalding-Heining

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.16

Augsburg II

2.23

Schalding-Heining

1.16

Augsburg II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 49 away

1.89

creates per match

0.90

1.42

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Augsburg II

1.89

Schalding-Heining

0.90

allows per match

Augsburg II

1.42

Schalding-Heining

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par

Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

Schalding-Heining →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw

81%

Augsburg II or Schalding-Heining

80%

Draw or Schalding-Heining

39%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+

39%

Schalding-Heining wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals

89%

Augsburg II 2+ goals

65%

Augsburg II 3+ goals

38%

Schalding-Heining 1+ goals

69%

Schalding-Heining 2+ goals

32%

Schalding-Heining 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)

76%

Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.42 · 88 matches

Schalding-Heining away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 1.89 + Schalding-Heining defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.23

Schalding-Heining attack 0.90 + Augsburg II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Augsburg II scores more

61%

level

20%

Schalding-Heining scores more

19%

Augsburg II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Augsburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff