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Augsburg II vs FC Schweinfurt 05 — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Augsburg II
Augsburg II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Schweinfurt 05
FC Schweinfurt 05
9/1/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 8Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Augsburg II45%
×Draw22%
FC Schweinfurt 0533%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg II
1.88
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.58

Augsburg II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 68 away

creates per match

Augsburg II
1.89
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.75

allows per match

Augsburg II
1.42
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.88

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par
FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw
67%
Augsburg II or FC Schweinfurt 05
78%
Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05
55%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+
25%
FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals
85%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
56%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
29%
FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals
79%
FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals
47%
FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)
58%
FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.42 · 88 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 1.89 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.75 + Augsburg II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Augsburg II scores more
45%
level
22%
FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more
33%

Augsburg II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Augsburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Augsburg II 2–1 FC Schweinfurt 05

Augsburg II beat FC Schweinfurt 05 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Rosenaustadion in Augsburg.