Augsburg II 1–1 Bayreuth: Result & Stats

Augsburg II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bayreuth

9/19/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 4Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Augsburg II41%

×Draw24%

Bayreuth35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg IIExpected goals in this matchBayreuth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.52

Augsburg II

1.65

Bayreuth

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 66 away

1.89

creates per match

1.62

1.42

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Augsburg II

1.89

Bayreuth

1.62

allows per match

Augsburg II

1.42

Bayreuth

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par

Bayreuth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

Bayreuth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw

65%

Augsburg II or Bayreuth

76%

Draw or Bayreuth

59%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+

21%

Bayreuth wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals

81%

Augsburg II 2+ goals

49%

Augsburg II 3+ goals

23%

Bayreuth 1+ goals

78%

Bayreuth 2+ goals

45%

Bayreuth 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)

54%

Bayreuth (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.42 · 88 matches

Bayreuth away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 1.89 + Bayreuth defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bayreuth attack 1.62 + Augsburg II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Augsburg II scores more

41%

level

24%

Bayreuth scores more

35%

Augsburg II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Augsburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff