Augnablik 5–2 Kormákur / Hvöt: Result & Stats | Cup

Augnablik

5 – 2

Kormákur / Hvöt

4/14/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundFífan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Augnablik66%

×Draw15%

Kormákur / Hvöt19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AugnablikExpected goals in this matchKormákur / Hvöt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.75

2.10

Augnablik

3.75

Kormákur / Hvöt

2.10

Augnablik creates 79% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

4.00

creates per match

2.00

2.20

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Augnablik

4.00

Kormákur / Hvöt

2.00

allows per match

Augnablik

2.20

Kormákur / Hvöt

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augnablik+0.00on par

Kormákur / Hvöt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augnablik ↓

Kormákur / Hvöt →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

82%18%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Augnablik or draw

81%

Augnablik or Kormákur / Hvöt

85%

Draw or Kormákur / Hvöt

34%

Winning margin

Augnablik wins by 2+

48%

Kormákur / Hvöt wins by 2+

Team goals

Augnablik 1+ goals

97%

Augnablik 2+ goals

88%

Augnablik 3+ goals

70%

Kormákur / Hvöt 1+ goals

88%

Kormákur / Hvöt 2+ goals

62%

Kormákur / Hvöt 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Augnablik (draw refunded)

77%

Kormákur / Hvöt (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Augnablik at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

Kormákur / Hvöt away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Augnablik attack 4.00 + Kormákur / Hvöt defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Kormákur / Hvöt attack 2.00 + Augnablik defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Augnablik scores more

66%

level

15%

Kormákur / Hvöt scores more

19%

Augnablik at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Augnablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff