Augnablik 0–5 IR Reykjavik: Result & Stats | Cup

Augnablik

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

IR Reykjavik

H. Matthiasson 86'

B. Helgason 73'

I. Ivarsson 66'

A. Kristinsson 55'

K. Marteinsson 19'

4/11/2025

Cup · 2nd RoundFífan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Augnablik38%

×Draw18%

IR Reykjavik44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AugnablikExpected goals in this matchIR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

3.02

Augnablik

2.79

IR Reykjavik

3.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

4.00

creates per match

3.83

2.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Augnablik

4.00

IR Reykjavik

3.83

allows per match

Augnablik

2.20

IR Reykjavik

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augnablik+0.00on par

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes89
No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augnablik ↓

IR Reykjavik →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–34%

1–43%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–12%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Augnablik or draw

56%

Augnablik or IR Reykjavik

82%

Draw or IR Reykjavik

62%

Winning margin

Augnablik wins by 2+

22%

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Augnablik 1+ goals

94%

Augnablik 2+ goals

76%

Augnablik 3+ goals

52%

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals

95%

IR Reykjavik 2+ goals

80%

IR Reykjavik 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Augnablik (draw refunded)

46%

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Augnablik at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

IR Reykjavik away — creates 3.83, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Augnablik attack 4.00 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.79

IR Reykjavik attack 3.83 + Augnablik defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Augnablik scores more

38%

level

18%

IR Reykjavik scores more

44%

IR Reykjavik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

K. Marteinsson

55'

A. Kristinsson

66'

I. Ivarsson

73'

B. Helgason

86'

H. Matthiasson

Augnablik

Manager: S. Sigurðarson

Manager: A. Guðnason