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Auersmacher vs Viktoria Herxheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Auersmacher
Auersmacher
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
D. Ghiani 90+2'
T. Walle 88', 5'
J. Trauth 60' (OG)
P. Jantzen 45+1'
C. Worzler 70'
3/22/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 23Kunstrasenplatz Auersmacher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Auersmacher59%
×Draw19%
Viktoria Herxheim22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auersmacher
2.45
Viktoria Herxheim
1.45

Auersmacher creates 69% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 17 away

creates per match

Auersmacher
1.90
Viktoria Herxheim
1.12

allows per match

Auersmacher
1.78
Viktoria Herxheim
3.00

finishing

Auersmacher+0.00on par
Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auersmacher ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Auersmacher or draw
78%
Auersmacher or Viktoria Herxheim
81%
Draw or Viktoria Herxheim
41%

Winning margin

Auersmacher wins by 2+
38%
Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Auersmacher 1+ goals
91%
Auersmacher 2+ goals
70%
Auersmacher 3+ goals
44%
Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
42%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Auersmacher (draw refunded)
73%
Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auersmacher at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.78 · 63 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auersmacher attack 1.90 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.45

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + Auersmacher defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Auersmacher scores more
59%
level
19%
Viktoria Herxheim scores more
22%

Auersmacher at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Auersmacher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
T. Walle
45+1'
P. Jantzen
60'
J. TrauthOwn goal
70'
C. Worzler
88'
T. Walle
90+2'
D. Ghiani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Auersmacher 5–1 Viktoria Herxheim

Auersmacher beat Viktoria Herxheim 5-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 22, 2025.

Goals: T. Walle (5', 88'), P. Jantzen (45+1'), J. Trauth (60' o.g.), C. Worzler (70'), D. Ghiani (90+2').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Auersmacher in Kleinblittersdorf.