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Auersmacher vs Diefflen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Auersmacher
Auersmacher
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Diefflen
Diefflen
11/25/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 23Kunstrasenplatz Auersmacher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Auersmacher46%
×Draw21%
Diefflen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auersmacher
2.12
Diefflen
1.77

Auersmacher creates 20% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 79 away

creates per match

Auersmacher
1.90
Diefflen
1.77

allows per match

Auersmacher
1.78
Diefflen
2.34

finishing

Auersmacher+0.00on par
Diefflen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auersmacher ↓

Diefflen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Auersmacher or draw
67%
Auersmacher or Diefflen
79%
Draw or Diefflen
54%

Winning margin

Auersmacher wins by 2+
27%
Diefflen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Auersmacher 1+ goals
88%
Auersmacher 2+ goals
62%
Auersmacher 3+ goals
35%
Diefflen 1+ goals
83%
Diefflen 2+ goals
53%
Diefflen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Auersmacher (draw refunded)
58%
Diefflen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auersmacher at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.78 · 63 matches

Diefflen away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auersmacher attack 1.90 + Diefflen defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.12

Diefflen attack 1.77 + Auersmacher defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Auersmacher scores more
46%
level
21%
Diefflen scores more
33%

Auersmacher at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Auersmacher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Auersmacher 2–0 Diefflen

Auersmacher beat Diefflen 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Auersmacher in Kleinblittersdorf.