Auersmacher 3–1 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Auersmacher

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

4/13/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 31Saar-Blies-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Auersmacher50%

×Draw22%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuersmacherExpected goals in this matchAlemannia Waldalgesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.50

Auersmacher

2.02

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.50

Auersmacher creates 35% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 43 away

1.90

creates per match

1.23

1.78

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Auersmacher

1.90

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.23

allows per match

Auersmacher

1.78

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auersmacher+0.00on par

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auersmacher ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Auersmacher or draw

71%

Auersmacher or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

78%

Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

50%

Winning margin

Auersmacher wins by 2+

29%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Auersmacher 1+ goals

87%

Auersmacher 2+ goals

60%

Auersmacher 3+ goals

33%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals

78%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals

44%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Auersmacher (draw refunded)

63%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auersmacher at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.78 · 63 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auersmacher attack 1.90 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.02

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Auersmacher defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Auersmacher scores more

50%

level

22%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more

29%

Auersmacher at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Auersmacher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff