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Auerbach vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Auerbach
Auerbach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
3/2/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 19Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Auerbach56%
×Draw22%
Ludwigsfelde22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auerbach
1.91
Ludwigsfelde
1.11

Auerbach creates 72% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 50 away

creates per match

Auerbach
1.85
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

Auerbach
1.27
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw
78%
Auerbach or Ludwigsfelde
78%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
44%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+
32%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals
85%
Auerbach 2+ goals
57%
Auerbach 3+ goals
30%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
67%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
30%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)
72%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Auerbach scores more
56%
level
22%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
22%

Auerbach at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auerbach vs Ludwigsfelde

Auerbach beat Ludwigsfelde 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Arena zur Vogtlandweide in Auerbach.