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Auerbach vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Auerbach
Auerbach
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
3/16/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 21Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Auerbach49%
×Draw22%
Budissa Bautzen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auerbach
1.99
Budissa Bautzen
1.52

Auerbach creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 77 away

creates per match

Auerbach
1.85
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

Auerbach
1.27
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw
70%
Auerbach or Budissa Bautzen
78%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
51%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+
28%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals
86%
Auerbach 2+ goals
59%
Auerbach 3+ goals
32%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
78%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
45%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)
62%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.99

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Auerbach scores more
49%
level
22%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
30%

Auerbach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Auerbach 1–1 Budissa Bautzen

Auerbach and Budissa Bautzen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Arena zur Vogtlandweide in Auerbach.