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Audax São Mateus vs Rio Branco ES — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Audax São Mateus
Audax São Mateus
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Rio Branco ES
Rio Branco ES
6/3/2026Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Audax São Mateus21%
×Draw29%
Rio Branco ES51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Audax São Mateus
0.73
Rio Branco ES
1.32

Rio Branco ES creates 81% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Audax São Mateus
0.33
Rio Branco ES
1.31

allows per match

Audax São Mateus
1.33
Rio Branco ES
1.13

finishing

Audax São Mateus+0.00on par
Rio Branco ES+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Audax São Mateus ↓

Rio Branco ES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Audax São Mateus or draw
49%
Audax São Mateus or Rio Branco ES
71%
Draw or Rio Branco ES
79%

Winning margin

Audax São Mateus wins by 2+
6%
Rio Branco ES wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Audax São Mateus 1+ goals
52%
Audax São Mateus 2+ goals
17%
Audax São Mateus 3+ goals
4%
Rio Branco ES 1+ goals
73%
Rio Branco ES 2+ goals
38%
Rio Branco ES 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Audax São Mateus (draw refunded)
29%
Rio Branco ES (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Audax São Mateus at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Rio Branco ES away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Audax São Mateus attack 0.33 + Rio Branco ES defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

Rio Branco ES attack 1.31 + Audax São Mateus defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Audax São Mateus scores more
21%
level
29%
Rio Branco ES scores more
51%

Rio Branco ES at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rio Branco ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Audax São Mateus vs Rio Branco ES

Rio Branco ES beat Audax São Mateus 4-0 in Copa Espírito Santo on June 3, 2026.