Audace Cerignola 1–4 Pescara: Result & Stats

Audace Cerignola

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Pescara

L. Cuppone 86'

R. Tonin 88', 83'

L. Meazzi 72', 66'

5/25/2025

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsCampo Comunale Domenico Monterisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Audace Cerignola34%

×Draw22%

Pescara44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Audace CerignolaExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.97

Audace Cerignola

1.73

Pescara

1.97

Pescara creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.17

creates per match

2.43

1.50

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Audace Cerignola

2.17

Pescara

2.43

allows per match

Audace Cerignola

1.50

Pescara

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Audace Cerignola+0.00on par

Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Audace Cerignola ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Audace Cerignola or draw

56%

Audace Cerignola or Pescara

78%

Draw or Pescara

66%

Winning margin

Audace Cerignola wins by 2+

17%

Pescara wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Audace Cerignola 1+ goals

82%

Audace Cerignola 2+ goals

52%

Audace Cerignola 3+ goals

25%

Pescara 1+ goals

86%

Pescara 2+ goals

58%

Pescara 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Audace Cerignola (draw refunded)

44%

Pescara (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Audace Cerignola at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Pescara away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Audace Cerignola attack 2.17 + Pescara defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Pescara attack 2.43 + Audace Cerignola defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Audace Cerignola scores more

34%

level

22%

Pescara scores more

44%

Pescara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

G. Letizia← F. Pellacani

24'

D. Merola

45+1'

G. Coccia

46'

I. Achik← F. DAndrea

58'

L. Valzania← A. Bentivegna

59'

G. Capomaggio

63'

M. Tascone← G. Bianchini

66'

68'

72'

73'

78'

78'

81'

G. Cangiano← L. Meazzi

81'

R. Tonin← A. Ferraris

81'

A. De Marco← M. Dagasso

83'

R. Tonin

86'

L. Cuppone

88'

R. Tonin

Audace

Pescara

22

Plizzari

79

Lancini

23

▼

77

27

6

8

▼

Dagasso

20

▼

Bentivegn

10

Merola

7

⚽2

▼

Meazzi

21

▼

1

55

23

7

3

▼

Russo

20

Ángel

13

▼

Bianchini

5

Capomaggi

25

▼

Romano

9

Salvemini

17

▼

D'Andrea

Manager: G. Raffaele

46'▲I. Achik←▼F. DAndrea

63'▲M. Tascone←▼G. Bianchini

68'▲L. Cuppone←▼L. Russo

73'▲G. Volpe←▼R. Romano

Audace Cerignola substitutes

19Achik8Tascone29Cuppone77Volpe12Saracco22Fares15Ligi21Velásquez27McJannet71Ianzano72Carrozza

Manager: S. Baldini

7'▲G. Letizia←▼F. Pellacani

58'▲L. Valzania←▼A. Bentivegna

81'▲G. Cangiano←▼L. Meazzi

81'▲R. Tonin←▼A. Ferraris

81'▲A. De Marco←▼M. Dagasso

Pescara substitutes

2Letizia14Valzania11Cangiano15Tonin28Marco1Saio5Kraja9Alberti12Profeta13Brosco16Crialese25Staver26Lonardi30Saccomanni

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs: Audace Cerignola 1–4 Pescara

Pescara beat Audace Cerignola 4-1 in Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs on May 25, 2025.

Goals: L. Meazzi (66', 72'), R. Tonin (83', 88'), L. Cuppone (86').

The match was played at Campo Comunale Domenico Monterisi in Cerignola.

Audace Cerignola vs Pescara — Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs: Audace Cerignola 1–4 Pescara