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Auckland vs Western Sydney Wanderers — A-League 2018

Auckland
Auckland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
4/5/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 25Go Media Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Auckland46%
×Draw24%
Western Sydney Wanderers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auckland
1.71
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.34

Auckland creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 105 away

creates per match

Auckland
1.66
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.51

allows per match

Auckland
1.17
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.77

finishing

Auckland+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auckland ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Auckland or draw
70%
Auckland or Western Sydney Wanderers
76%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers
54%

Winning margin

Auckland wins by 2+
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Auckland 1+ goals
82%
Auckland 2+ goals
51%
Auckland 3+ goals
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
74%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
39%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Auckland (draw refunded)
60%
Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auckland at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auckland attack 1.66 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.51 + Auckland defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Auckland scores more
46%
level
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
30%

Auckland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auckland vs Western Sydney Wanderers

Auckland and Western Sydney Wanderers drew 1-1 in A-League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Go Media Stadium in Auckland.