Auckland 1–3 Newcastle Jets: Result & Stats

Auckland

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Newcastle Jets

1/1/2026

A-League · Round 11Go Media Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Auckland47%

×Draw24%

Newcastle Jets29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucklandExpected goals in this matchNewcastle Jets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.25

Auckland

1.67

Newcastle Jets

1.25

Auckland creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 107 away

1.66

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Auckland

1.66

Newcastle Jets

1.33

allows per match

Auckland

1.17

Newcastle Jets

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auckland+0.00on par

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auckland ↓

Newcastle Jets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Auckland or draw

71%

Auckland or Newcastle Jets

76%

Draw or Newcastle Jets

53%

Winning margin

Auckland wins by 2+

25%

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Auckland 1+ goals

81%

Auckland 2+ goals

50%

Auckland 3+ goals

23%

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals

71%

Newcastle Jets 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle Jets 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Auckland (draw refunded)

62%

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auckland at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Newcastle Jets away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auckland attack 1.66 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Newcastle Jets attack 1.33 + Auckland defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Auckland scores more

47%

level

24%

Newcastle Jets scores more

29%

Auckland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff