Auckland 4–4 Adelaide United: Result & Stats

Auckland

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Adelaide United

H. Sakai 90+2'

L. Rogerson 52'

G. May 14', 10'

B. Vriends 90+8'

Z. Clough 79' (pen), 61' (pen)

J. Elsey 30'

3/1/2025

A-League · Round 21Go Media Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Auckland45%

×Draw24%

Adelaide United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucklandExpected goals in this matchAdelaide United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.40

Auckland

1.72

Adelaide United

1.40

Auckland creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 109 away

1.66

creates per match

1.62

1.17

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Auckland

1.66

Adelaide United

1.62

allows per match

Auckland

1.17

Adelaide United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auckland+0.00on par

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auckland ↓

Adelaide United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Auckland or draw

69%

Auckland or Adelaide United

76%

Draw or Adelaide United

55%

Winning margin

Auckland wins by 2+

24%

Adelaide United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Auckland 1+ goals

82%

Auckland 2+ goals

51%

Auckland 3+ goals

25%

Adelaide United 1+ goals

75%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

41%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Auckland (draw refunded)

59%

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auckland at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Adelaide United away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.78 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auckland attack 1.66 + Adelaide United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.72

Adelaide United attack 1.62 + Auckland defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Auckland scores more

45%

level

24%

Adelaide United scores more

31%

Auckland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Clough

Adelaide United · M

9.0

Match Events

10'

G. May↳ J. Brimmer

14'

G. May↳ F. de Vries

30'

J. Elsey

52'

L. Rogerson↳ F. de Vries

55'

L. Verstraete← J. Brimmer

55'

J. Randall← M. Mata

58'

Ethan AlagichPenalty confirmed

61'

Z. CloughPenalty

63'

S. Mauk← B. Folami

70'

M. François← L. Rogerson

70'

C. Howieson← F. Gallegos

79'

Z. CloughPenalty

82'

A. Tatu← Y. Dukuly

84'

C. Elliot← N. Moreno

90'

A. Ayoubi← A. Goodwin

90'

R. White← Z. Clough

90+2'

H. Sakai

90+8'

B. Vriends

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AucklandAdelaide

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots18

1Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots18

7On Target7

6Off Target7

4Blocked4

14Inside Box13

3Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

346Total Passes449

259Accurate Passes368

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Offsides0