Auchinleck Talbot 1–0 Hamilton Academical

Auchinleck Talbot

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hamilton Academical

G. Wilson 60'

11/27/2021

FA Cup · 3rd RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Auchinleck Talbot65%

×Draw20%

Hamilton Academical14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Auchinleck TalbotExpected goals in this matchHamilton Academical

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.80

Auchinleck Talbot

2.01

Hamilton Academical

0.80

Auchinleck Talbot creates 151% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

2.27

creates per match

0.50

1.09

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Auchinleck Talbot

2.27

Hamilton Academical

0.50

allows per match

Auchinleck Talbot

1.09

Hamilton Academical

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auchinleck Talbot ↓

Hamilton Academical →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Auchinleck Talbot or draw

86%

Auchinleck Talbot or Hamilton Academical

80%

Draw or Hamilton Academical

35%

Winning margin

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+

41%

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

Team goals

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals

87%

Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals

59%

Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals

32%

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

55%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

19%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)

82%

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Auchinleck Talbot at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.27 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.01

Hamilton Academical attack 0.50 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Auchinleck Talbot scores more

65%

level

20%

Hamilton Academical scores more

14%

Auchinleck Talbot at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

J. Glasgow

57'

K. Samson← J. Glasgow

60'

G. Wilson↳ G. Armstrong

63'

D. Moyo← M. Redfern

70'

W. Boyd← M. Shankland

73'

M. Virtanen← S. Martin

77'

L. Smith← R. Hughes

79'

M. Virtanen

88'

J. McDowall← B. Boylan

90+2'

D. Moyo

Auchinleck

Hamilton

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Sloan

57'▲K. Samson←▼J. Glasgow

70'▲W. Boyd←▼M. Shankland

88'▲J. McDowall←▼B. Boylan

Auchinleck Talbot substitutes

14Samson15Boyd18McDowall21Stafford20Hewitt12Hyslop16Mason17Lyle19White

Manager: S. Taylor

63'▲D. Moyo←▼M. Redfern

73'▲M. Virtanen←▼S. Martin

77'▲L. Smith←▼R. Hughes

Hamilton Academical substitutes

20Moyo2Virtanen11Smith6Hamilton7MacDonald19Winter16Mullin22Matheson30May

Match Recap: Auchinleck Talbot vs Hamilton Academical

Auchinleck Talbot beat Hamilton Academical 1-0 in FA Cup on November 27, 2021.

Goals: G. Wilson (60').

The match was played at Beechwood Park in Auchinleck.

Auchinleck Talbot vs Hamilton Academical — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Auchinleck Talbot vs Hamilton Academical