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Auchinleck Talbot vs Gretna 2008 — FA Cup 2019

Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gretna 2008
Gretna 2008
L. Gillies 59'
S. Schoneville 27'
K. McAvoy 10'
A. Oram 68'
10/25/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Auchinleck Talbot57%
×Draw21%
Gretna 200822%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auchinleck Talbot
2.13
Gretna 2008
1.25

Auchinleck Talbot creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Auchinleck Talbot
2.27
Gretna 2008
1.40

allows per match

Auchinleck Talbot
1.09
Gretna 2008
2.00

finishing

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par
Gretna 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auchinleck Talbot ↓

Gretna 2008 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Auchinleck Talbot or draw
78%
Auchinleck Talbot or Gretna 2008
79%
Draw or Gretna 2008
43%

Winning margin

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
35%
Gretna 2008 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
88%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
63%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
35%
Gretna 2008 1+ goals
71%
Gretna 2008 2+ goals
36%
Gretna 2008 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
72%
Gretna 2008 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auchinleck Talbot at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Gretna 2008 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.27 + Gretna 2008 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gretna 2008 attack 1.40 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Auchinleck Talbot scores more
57%
level
21%
Gretna 2008 scores more
22%

Auchinleck Talbot at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
K. McAvoy↳ E. Thomson
27'
S. Schoneville↳ K. McAvoy
29'
H. Tait
59'
L. Gillies↳ C. Boyd
68'
A. Oram
Auchinleck
Gretna
T. Sloan
Manager: T. Sloan
Vincent Parker
Manager: Vincent Parker

Match Recap: Auchinleck Talbot vs Gretna 2008

Auchinleck Talbot beat Gretna 2008 3-1 in FA Cup on October 25, 2025.

Goals: K. McAvoy (10'), S. Schoneville (27'), L. Gillies (59'), A. Oram (68').