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Auchinleck Talbot vs Cumnock Juniors — FA Cup 2019

Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cumnock Juniors
Cumnock Juniors
9/26/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Auchinleck Talbot46%
×Draw22%
Cumnock Juniors32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auchinleck Talbot
1.97
Cumnock Juniors
1.63

Auchinleck Talbot creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Auchinleck Talbot
2.27
Cumnock Juniors
2.17

allows per match

Auchinleck Talbot
1.09
Cumnock Juniors
1.67

finishing

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par
Cumnock Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auchinleck Talbot ↓

Cumnock Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Auchinleck Talbot or draw
68%
Auchinleck Talbot or Cumnock Juniors
78%
Draw or Cumnock Juniors
54%

Winning margin

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
26%
Cumnock Juniors wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
86%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
58%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
31%
Cumnock Juniors 1+ goals
80%
Cumnock Juniors 2+ goals
48%
Cumnock Juniors 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
59%
Cumnock Juniors (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auchinleck Talbot at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Cumnock Juniors away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.27 + Cumnock Juniors defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.97

Cumnock Juniors attack 2.17 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Auchinleck Talbot scores more
46%
level
22%
Cumnock Juniors scores more
32%

Auchinleck Talbot at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Auchinleck
Cumnock
T. Sloan
Manager: T. Sloan
M. MacKinnon
Manager: M. MacKinnon

Match Recap: Auchinleck Talbot vs Cumnock Juniors

Auchinleck Talbot beat Cumnock Juniors 2-1 in FA Cup on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Beechwood Park in Auchinleck.