Auchinleck Talbot 1–0 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Auchinleck Talbot

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cove Rangers

D. Hyslop 88'

10/19/2019

FA Cup · 2nd RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Auchinleck Talbot58%

×Draw22%

Cove Rangers21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Auchinleck TalbotExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.11

Auchinleck Talbot

1.99

Cove Rangers

1.11

Auchinleck Talbot creates 79% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.27

creates per match

1.14

1.09

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Auchinleck Talbot

2.27

Cove Rangers

1.14

allows per match

Auchinleck Talbot

1.09

Cove Rangers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auchinleck Talbot ↓

Cove Rangers →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Auchinleck Talbot or draw

79%

Auchinleck Talbot or Cove Rangers

78%

Draw or Cove Rangers

42%

Winning margin

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+

34%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

Team goals

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals

86%

Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals

59%

Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals

32%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

67%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

30%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)

73%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Auchinleck Talbot at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.27 + Cove Rangers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.99

Cove Rangers attack 1.14 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Auchinleck Talbot scores more

58%

level

22%

Cove Rangers scores more

21%

Auchinleck Talbot at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

J. Masson← M. Smith

73'

J. Glasgow← M. Shankland

81'

K. Healy← S. Wilson

81'

B. Boylan← K. Samson

86'

J. Robertson← M. Scott

88'

D. Hyslop↳ K. Healy

Auchinleck

Cove

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: T. Sloan

73'▲J. Glasgow←▼M. Shankland

81'▲K. Healy←▼S. Wilson

81'▲B. Boylan←▼K. Samson

Auchinleck Talbot substitutes

12Glasgow14Healy15Boylan17McDowall18White16Young20Hewitt

Manager: P. Hartley

70'▲J. Masson←▼M. Smith

86'▲J. Robertson←▼M. Scott

Cove Rangers substitutes

11Masson19Robertson18Brown17Redman21Demus15Redford