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Auchinleck Talbot vs Coldstream — FA Cup 2019

Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
FT
7 – 0
Coldstream
Coldstream
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Auchinleck Talbot69%
×Draw16%
Coldstream15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auchinleck Talbot
2.88
Coldstream
1.29

Auchinleck Talbot creates 123% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Auchinleck Talbot
2.27
Coldstream
1.50

allows per match

Auchinleck Talbot
1.09
Coldstream
3.50

finishing

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par
Coldstream+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auchinleck Talbot ↓

Coldstream →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Auchinleck Talbot or draw
85%
Auchinleck Talbot or Coldstream
84%
Draw or Coldstream
31%

Winning margin

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
49%
Coldstream wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
94%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
78%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
54%
Coldstream 1+ goals
72%
Coldstream 2+ goals
37%
Coldstream 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
82%
Coldstream (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auchinleck Talbot at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Coldstream away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.27 + Coldstream defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.88

Coldstream attack 1.50 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Auchinleck Talbot scores more
69%
level
16%
Coldstream scores more
15%

Auchinleck Talbot at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auchinleck Talbot vs Coldstream

Auchinleck Talbot beat Coldstream 7-0 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Beechwood Park in Auchinleck.