Auchinleck Talbot 1–1 Arbroath: Result & Stats

Auchinleck Talbot

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arbroath

D. Hyslop 11'

M. McKenna 84' (pen)

11/23/2019

FA Cup · 3rd RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Auchinleck Talbot49%

×Draw25%

Arbroath27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Auchinleck TalbotExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.15

Auchinleck Talbot

1.64

Arbroath

1.15

Auchinleck Talbot creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

2.27

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Auchinleck Talbot

2.27

Arbroath

1.20

allows per match

Auchinleck Talbot

1.09

Arbroath

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auchinleck Talbot ↓

Arbroath →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Auchinleck Talbot or draw

73%

Auchinleck Talbot or Arbroath

75%

Draw or Arbroath

51%

Winning margin

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+

26%

Arbroath wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals

81%

Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals

49%

Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals

23%

Arbroath 1+ goals

68%

Arbroath 2+ goals

32%

Arbroath 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)

65%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Auchinleck Talbot at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Arbroath away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.27 + Arbroath defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Arbroath attack 1.20 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Auchinleck Talbot scores more

49%

level

25%

Arbroath scores more

27%

Auchinleck Talbot at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Hyslop

46'

S. Stewart← J. Murphy

63'

J. Campbell← G. Spence

66'

J. Glasgow← B. Boylan

67'

M. Shankland← K. Samson

81'

O. Kader← B. Linn

84'

M. McKennaPenalty

87'

J. McDowall← K. Healy

Auchinleck

Arbroath

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Sloan

66'▲J. Glasgow←▼B. Boylan

67'▲M. Shankland←▼K. Samson

87'▲J. McDowall←▼K. Healy

Auchinleck Talbot substitutes

12Glasgow14Shankland15McDowall17White18Wilson16Young20Hewitt

Manager: D. Campbell

46'▲S. Stewart←▼J. Murphy

63'▲J. Campbell←▼G. Spence

81'▲O. Kader←▼B. Linn

Arbroath substitutes

16Stewart20Campbell12Kader10Swankie9Doris19Stirling1Jamieson