Auch 0–4 Romorantin: Result & Stats

Auch

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Romorantin

11/19/2023

Coupe de France · 7th RoundTerrain Complexe Sportif Éric Carrière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Auch5%

×Draw10%

Romorantin85%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuchExpected goals in this matchRomorantin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

3.17

Auch

0.67

Romorantin

3.17

Romorantin creates 373% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.33

creates per match

2.00

4.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Auch

0.33

Romorantin

2.00

allows per match

Auch

4.33

Romorantin

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auch+0.00on par

Romorantin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auch ↓

Romorantin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–211%

0–312%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Auch or draw

15%

Auch or Romorantin

90%

Draw or Romorantin

95%

Winning margin

Auch wins by 2+

1%

Romorantin wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Auch 1+ goals

49%

Auch 2+ goals

15%

Auch 3+ goals

3%

Romorantin 1+ goals

96%

Romorantin 2+ goals

82%

Romorantin 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Auch (draw refunded)

6%

Romorantin (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auch at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Romorantin away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auch attack 0.33 + Romorantin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Romorantin attack 2.00 + Auch defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Auch scores more

5%

level

10%

Romorantin scores more

85%

Romorantin at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Romorantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff