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Auch vs Rodez — Coupe de France 2018

Auch
Auch
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Rodez
Rodez
11/16/2019Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Jacques-Fouroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Auch6%
×Draw10%
Rodez84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auch
0.84
Rodez
3.43

Rodez creates 308% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Auch
0.33
Rodez
2.53

allows per match

Auch
4.33
Rodez
1.35

finishing

Auch+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auch ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Auch or draw
16%
Auch or Rodez
90%
Draw or Rodez
94%

Winning margin

Auch wins by 2+
2%
Rodez wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Auch 1+ goals
57%
Auch 2+ goals
21%
Auch 3+ goals
5%
Rodez 1+ goals
97%
Rodez 2+ goals
85%
Rodez 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Auch (draw refunded)
6%
Rodez (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auch at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Rodez away — creates 2.53, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auch attack 0.33 + Rodez defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.84

Rodez attack 2.53 + Auch defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Auch scores more
6%
level
10%
Rodez scores more
84%

Rodez at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Auch 0 – 5 Rodez

Rodez beat Auch 5-0 in Coupe de France on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Jacques-Fouroux in Auch.