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Auch vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio — Coupe de France 2018

Auch
Auch
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
11/18/2018Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundTerrain Complexe Sportif Éric Carrière (Auch)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Auch6%
×Draw12%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auch
0.58
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
2.75

Gazelec FC Ajaccio creates 374% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Auch
0.33
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
1.17

allows per match

Auch
4.33
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
0.83

finishing

Auch+0.00on par
Gazelec FC Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auch ↓

Gazelec FC Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–214%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Auch or draw
18%
Auch or Gazelec FC Ajaccio
88%
Draw or Gazelec FC Ajaccio
94%

Winning margin

Auch wins by 2+
1%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

Auch 1+ goals
44%
Auch 2+ goals
12%
Auch 3+ goals
2%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 1+ goals
93%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2+ goals
75%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Auch (draw refunded)
6%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auch at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Gazelec FC Ajaccio away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auch attack 0.33 + Gazelec FC Ajaccio defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Gazelec FC Ajaccio attack 1.17 + Auch defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Auch scores more
6%
level
12%
Gazelec FC Ajaccio scores more
82%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Gazelec FC Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auch vs Gazelec FC Ajaccio

Auch and Gazelec FC Ajaccio drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2018.

The match was played at Terrain Complexe Sportif Éric Carrière (Auch).