Auch 1–4 Canet Roussillon: Result & Stats

Auch

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Canet Roussillon

11/15/2025

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Auch3%

×Draw8%

Canet Roussillon89%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuchExpected goals in this matchCanet Roussillon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

3.33

Auch

0.50

Canet Roussillon

3.33

Canet Roussillon creates 566% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.33

creates per match

2.33

4.33

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Auch

0.33

Canet Roussillon

2.33

allows per match

Auch

4.33

Canet Roussillon

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auch+0.00on par

Canet Roussillon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auch ↓

Canet Roussillon →

0–02%

0–18%

0–213%

0–314%

0–412%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (14%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Auch or draw

11%

Auch or Canet Roussillon

92%

Draw or Canet Roussillon

97%

Winning margin

Auch wins by 2+

Canet Roussillon wins by 2+

73%

Team goals

Auch 1+ goals

39%

Auch 2+ goals

Auch 3+ goals

Canet Roussillon 1+ goals

96%

Canet Roussillon 2+ goals

84%

Canet Roussillon 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Auch (draw refunded)

Canet Roussillon (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Auch at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Canet Roussillon away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Auch attack 0.33 + Canet Roussillon defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Canet Roussillon attack 2.33 + Auch defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 89%?"

Auch scores more

level

Canet Roussillon scores more

89%

Canet Roussillon at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Canet Roussillon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff