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Aucas vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Aucas
Aucas
Preview
20:00
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
8/16/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 25Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Big match
42%
Aucas
model favours
42%26%32%

LDU de Quito score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Aucas42%
×Draw26%
LDU de Quito32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aucas
1.44
LDU de Quito
1.21

Aucas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 136 away

creates per match

Aucas
1.74
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Aucas
1.05
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aucas or draw
68%
Aucas or LDU de Quito
74%
Draw or LDU de Quito
58%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+
20%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals
76%
Aucas 2+ goals
42%
Aucas 3+ goals
18%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
70%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
34%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)
57%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.74 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Aucas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aucas scores more
42%
level
26%
LDU de Quito scores more
32%

Aucas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • LDU de Quito win just 48% against the top half (vs 75% against the bottom)
  • LDU de Quito matches are rarely goalless — only 3.4% end 0-0
  • 37% of LDU de Quito’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Aucas
Defensively solid
LDU de Quito
Defensively solid
53%Possession55%
80%Pass accuracy81%
10.3ShotsBiggest gap13.2
1.22xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AucasLDU de Quito

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Aucas
5
Draws
2
LDU de Quito
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 50%
0–01–01–30–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Aucas
LWWDW
Quito
LLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aucas face LDU de Quito (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Aucas hosting LDU de Quito. Match starts August 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Aucas host LDU de Quito at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.