Aucas 0–1 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Aucas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

8/17/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 3Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Aucas43%

×Draw26%

LDU de Quito32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.21

Aucas

1.45

LDU de Quito

1.21

Aucas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 136 away

1.75

creates per match

1.37

1.04

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Aucas

1.75

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Aucas

1.04

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

68%

Aucas or LDU de Quito

74%

Draw or LDU de Quito

57%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

21%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

77%

Aucas 2+ goals

42%

Aucas 3+ goals

18%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

70%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

34%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

57%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 134 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.75 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.45

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Aucas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aucas scores more

43%

level

26%

LDU de Quito scores more

32%

Aucas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff