Aucas vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 133+ matches
Aucas42%
LDU de Quito32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Aucas creates 19% more chances
Season form · 133 home / 136 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Aucas ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Aucas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches
LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Aucas attack 1.74 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44
LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Aucas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Aucas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
MacaraAucas
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
Guayaquil City FC
Universidad Catolica
EmelecLDU de Quito
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
Manta FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Aucas host LDU de Quito on Sunday, 13 August 2023 at 23:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Aucas vs LDU de Quito
Aucas and LDU de Quito drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on August 13, 2023.
LDU de Quito controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 20.
The match was played at Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.