Aucas 2–0 Independiente del Valle: Result & Stats

Aucas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente del Valle

L. Cano 55'

E. Castillo 28'

11/11/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 13Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Aucas41%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.30

Aucas

1.46

Independiente del Valle

1.30

Aucas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 134 away

1.75

creates per match

1.56

1.04

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Aucas

1.75

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

Aucas

1.04

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

66%

Aucas or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

59%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

20%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

77%

Aucas 2+ goals

43%

Aucas 3+ goals

18%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

73%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

37%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

55%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 134 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.75 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Aucas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aucas scores more

41%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

34%

Aucas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

H. Galíndez

Aucas · G

8.3

Match Events

28'

E. Castillo↳ Y. Candelo

46'

J. Sornoza← J. Chávez

55'

61'

63'

63'

68'

70'

77'

R. Otero← E. Castillo

77'

L. Faravelli← M. Fernández

80'

Junior Sornoza

83'

J. Montero← J. Quiñónez

83'

J. Cifuente← J. Medina

87'

Jhon CifuentePenalty confirmed

90+4'

D. Espinosa← L. Cano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AucasIndependiente

Overview

29%Possession71%

9Total Shots24

2Corners8

8Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots24

5On Target9

2Off Target12

2Blocked3

8Inside Box11

1Outside Box13

Passing

29%Possession71%

214Total Passes547

147Accurate Passes477

69%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

10Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2