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Aucas vs El Nacional — Liga Pro 2026

Aucas
Aucas
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
El Nacional
El Nacional
11/1/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Placement Group - 4Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Aucas51%
×Draw25%
El Nacional25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aucas
1.63
El Nacional
1.06

Aucas creates 54% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 91 away

creates per match

Aucas
1.75
El Nacional
1.08

allows per match

Aucas
1.04
El Nacional
1.51

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aucas or draw
75%
Aucas or El Nacional
75%
Draw or El Nacional
49%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+
27%
El Nacional wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals
80%
Aucas 2+ goals
48%
Aucas 3+ goals
22%
El Nacional 1+ goals
65%
El Nacional 2+ goals
29%
El Nacional 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)
67%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 134 matches

El Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.75 + El Nacional defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

El Nacional attack 1.08 + Aucas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aucas scores more
51%
level
25%
El Nacional scores more
25%

Aucas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aucas vs El Nacional

Aucas and El Nacional drew 3-3 in Liga Pro on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.